Performance of CURB-65, PSI, and APACHE-II for predicting COVID-19 pneumonia severity and mortality

No prognostic tools for the prediction of COVID-19 pneumonia severity and mortality are available. We explored whether CURB-65, PSI, and APACHE-II could predict COVID-19 pneumonia severity and mortality. We included 167 patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia in this retrospective study. The severity and 30-day mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia were predicted using PSI, CURB-65, and APACHE-II scales. Kappa test was performed to compare the consistency of the three scales. There was a significant difference in the distribution of the scores of the three scales (P < 0.001). Patients with PSI class ⩽III, CURB-65 ⩽1, and APACHE-II-I all survived. The ROC analysis showed the areas under the curve of the PSI, CURB-65, and APACHE-II scales were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.74–0.93), 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69–0.90), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75–0.92), respectively. Our findings suggest that PSI and CURB-65 might be useful to predict the severity and mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of European Journal of Inflammation (Sage Publications, Ltd.) is the property of Sage Publications, Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Systemic Anticoagulation is Associated With Decreased Mortality in COVID-19 Patients: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study (preprint)

Background: Accumulating evidence has revealed that coagulopathy and widespread thrombosis in the lung are common in patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). This raises questions about the efficacy and safety of systemic anticoagulation (AC) in COVID-19 patients. Method: This single-center, retrospective, cohort study unselectively reviewed 2272 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Tongji Hospital between Jan 25 and Mar 23, 2020. Propensity score-matching between patients adjusted for potential covariates was carried out with the patients divided into two groups depending on whether or not they had received AC treatment (AC group, ³7 days of treatment; non-AC group, no treatment). This yielded 164 patients in each group. Result: In-hospital mortality of the AC group was significantly lower than that of the non-AC group (14.0% vs. 28.7%, P =0.001). Treatment with AC was associated with a significantly lower probability of in-hospital death (adjusted HR=0.273, 95% CI, 0.154 to 0.484, P<0.001). The incidence of major bleeding and thrombocytopenia in the two groups was not significantly different. Subgroup analysis showed the following factors were associated with a significantly lower in-hospital mortality in patients who had received AC treatment; severe cases (13.2% vs. 24.6%, P=0.018), critical cases (20.0% vs 82.4%, P=0.003), patients with a D-dimer level ≥0.5 μg/mL (14.8% vs. 33.8, P<0.001), and moderate (16.7% vs. 60.0%, P=0.003) or severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) cases at admission (33.3% vs. 86.7%, P=0.004). During the hospital stay, critical cases (38.3% vs. 76.7%, P<0.001) and severe ARDS cases (36.5% vs. 76.3%, P<0.001) who received AC treatment had significantly lower in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: AC treatment decreases the risk of in-hospital mortality, especially in critically ill patients, with no additional significant, major bleeding events or thrombocytopenia being observed.Trials registration - ChiCTR2000039855

Effectiveness of Pharmacological Interventions to Control COVID-19: An Age-Specific Modelling Study (preprint)

Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Only drugs or vaccines can eliminate the virus. Methods: We adopted our age-specific transmission model by susceptible-exposed-infectious -critically ill-asymptomatic-removed (SEICAR) model. Effects of different drug types were simulated by changing transmission rate (β), critical case fatality rate (fc), and disease duration of each age group. Evaluation indexes were based on outbreak duration(OD), cumulative number of cases(CNC), total attack rate(TAR), peak date(PD), number of peak cases(NPC), and case fatality rate(f). Findings: When without intervention, changing in β and disease duration, as the age increased, OD decreased, TAR increased, PD advanced, CCN and NPC initially increased and then decreased, while f decreased first and then increased. When disease duration and β remained unchanged, changing fc did not affect the epidemic. All age groups had 40% shorter disease duration but unchanged fc, while β was reduced by 60%, which reduced TAR of group 1 (≤14 years) from 2·35% to 0·09%; f of group 4 (≥65 years) was reduced from 1·04% to 0·05%. Interpretation: Drugs had different age-dependent effects. If a drug can control the disease duration or β of all age groups, younger people would have the fastest transmission control and seniors will have the best improvement in disease severity. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-005834); the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province (No: 2020Y0002), and the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program (No: 3502Z2020YJ03).Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Acute Kidney Injury in COVID-19: clinical outcomes and risk factors (preprint)

Background:Understanding of the incidence and effects of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 is limited. The purpose of this study was to examine risk factors and related outcomes associated with AKI among patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Method:  This is a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 associated-pneumonia admitted to a tertiary hospital in Wuhan between January to February 2020. AKI was defined and staged according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) classification criteria. Cox’s multivariate regression and logistic regression modelling were used to assess the effects of AKI on hospital mortality and risk factors associated with occurrence of AKI. Primary outcomes were risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality.Results:342 patients were finally enrolled in this study. AKI occurred in 13.4% (n = 46), among them 7.0% (n = 24) developed stage 1AKI, and 6.4% (n = 22) developed stage 2 - 3 AKI. Overall 26.9% (n = 92) died during hospitalization. Among them 19.3% (57/296) of the non-AKI patients died, 62.5%(15/24) of stage 1 AKI patients, and 90.9% (20/22) of stage 2 - 3 AKI patients died. AKI was strongly associated with mortality (HR 2.52; 95% CI, 1.59-3.96; p＜0.001). Further analysis shows that progression to AKI stage 2 - 3 doubles the hazard ratio for death. Age, leukocytes number, fibrinogen concentration, C-reative protein level, and severity of pneumonia at admission were independent risk factors associated with the development of AKI. Conclusion:Acute kidney injury is common among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and strongly associated with increased mortality, early detection and prevention of the progression of AKI may be critical to reduce mortality of these patients.